Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Journal - Meltdown of World Stock Markets

The volatility of the world’s stock markets over the long weekend has taught me some important lessons in world economy:

>>> The emerging economies (India, China especially; less so are the developed economies) are still dependent on Americans’ spending - despite whoever told you otherwise. Therefore, their governments have been so willing to subsidize Americans’ borrowing habits in the past. The prospect of American recession has given them a rude shock and awakening.

>>> People in China or Japan are earning more than what they spend (they are countries of savers.) Their economies are cushioned by rich cash reserves and can withstand recessions. Americans are spending more than what they earn. American economy is driven entirely by borrowing and consumption; and when the credit lines dry up, Americans stop consuming, and the economy goes into a recession.

>>> America is run by “market capitalism” trumped by Wall Street financial wizards and Corporate America, while China or Arab oil countries are run by state-planned “national capitalism”. In times of duress, America will be available for sale.

>>> A nation which doesn’t produce its own goods or services for its citizens is on thin ice. A country which lives on credit (or the whims of their financial gurus) runs the risk of self-deception.

>>> George Soro was right on with his long-range economic predictions:
- Re-regulation of American financial/banking industries is needed to fix America’s subprime mess.
- FED’s lowering its key lending interest rate can only fix the problems temporarily. American recession is inevitable and cannot be solved quickly or painlessly.
- Asian economy is still healthy, and has more room to grow their own demand. Emerging economies will learn from this lesson and move on to do the right thing.

>>> It’s not so bad that the world weans itself from American economy. It’s not so bad that America cedes its economic power to other countries.

>>> The Republicans have no economic policy:
- The only thing they know is tax-cut.

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Robo-Heads

A computer consultant driving a rental car drove onto train tracks Wednesday using the instructions his GPS unit gave him. A train was barreling toward him, but he escaped in time and no one was injured.

The driver had turned right, as the system advised, and the car somehow got stuck on the tracks at the crossing. He jumped out and tried to warn the engineer by waving. He got out of the way just before the train slammed into the car at 60 mph, Metro-North railroad spokesman Dan Brucker said Thursday.

The car was pushed more than 100 feet during the fiery crash. Some 500 train passengers were stranded for more than two hours during the Wednesday evening rush hour. The accident also heavily damaged 250 feet of rail, Brucker said.

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press.

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A true story that happened practically in my backyard near Bedford, New York. And the train involved in the crash was the beloved Metro-North Harlem train.

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Things like this make me wonder: Are these techno-gadgets having the effect of dumbing down human brains, or what? In the old days, to prepare for a trip, I would study the map way ahead of time, drive more attentively and cautiously on unfamiliar roads. Today, with the ever easy-to-use GPS and a car which almost drives itself (with cruise control, automatic transmission, etc), any dummy can drive anywhere with his eyes practically shut (or he thinks he can).

We always compare ourselves with our previous generations. True to tell, our fathers are handier and more self-sufficient than we are; and sadly, we seem to be handier and slightly more self-sufficient than my children.

I’ve imagined a future, from how my kids have developed, of robo-heads (no arms, no bodies, just the heads) living in a techno-bubble. They can’t eat or drink, can’t drive, can’t imagine, can’t have sex, with eyes glued to the TV and Internet. They are good for little, quite dependent, and completely hopeless without their gear.

Have you read Neil Gaiman’s science fiction, “American Gods”, where the gods are what’s left of human intellect (in the novel, gods were those brought to America from the old countries by early immigrants and then forgotten), and the evil is the modern-day technology? The novel was about the big fight between the good and the evil. I don’t know who won in the end yet – I haven’t finished reading it. But I’ll be smart enough to stay away from those mind-numbing devices: TV, mall, video games, IPOD, and GPS (mind you, I’m not above using technology to make my life easier.)

This morning, I’ve heard that GM has unveiled a new electronic contraption for their future cars in this year’s Las Vegas Consumer Electronics show. This device will allow you to eat, drink, talk, do makeup, shave, watch TV, go on Internet all while you are driving – things that you are quite capable of multi-tasking now inside your car without technology (I won’t tell.) Here is just another smart invention of a master distraction in our lives, eh?